In the previous column, I suggested that the long-term chart for Bitcoin looks positively charming, to me.  But that is not to say that the short-term looks the same :-).  Let’s look again at an 8-day chart, now that the last candle has closed and a new one opened:

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This is the “big” view.  As you can see, the 1×1 angle and the 1st arc support have both held on a closing basis, so far.  Here is a close-up of the recent candles on that chart:

Price is again testing both the 1×1 and the 1st arc.  I continue to expect both to hold on a closing basis, but intra-candle support will likely break.  And of course there is still almost 8 days until the next candle opens, so a test of the lows around 800 seems quite likely.

Let’s look at bear setup on a shorter-term 8-hour chart:

This chart also suggests that a test of the low might be in the cards.  Note that the advance/rally was stopped by the 1×2 angle (blue arrow) on the larger setup (not shown).  And more ominously, we see that price broke closed below the 1st arc on the panic selling to $800, but did not meet the 1st arc pair (red arrow).


In my opinion, if/when we get a close below the 1st arc again, which seems likely given that price is just above the arc at this writing, a test of the 1st arc pair (red) is more likely than not.  That would bring price to the $760 area.

Whether that would be the low that kicks off another rally to new highs is still not clear.  To divine that, we need to see how price reacts to the 1st arc pair (red arcs) when/if it gets there…

Happy trading!

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.


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May 17th