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Price chartBitcoin Price is still trading sideways without making a new intraday high or low. We consider some longer term chart analysis while waiting for the Bitcoin price to take direction.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC

Christmas Season

Bitstamp 4-Hour Chart

A look at the 4-hour chart shows few signs of what price action may be up to. The lack of a higher high or lower low on the intraday chart requires us to wait for more clarity.


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Interesting, on this chart, is that the Bitcoin price shows little regard for the Fib fan lines once it embarks on an advance (left of chart). Price candles slice through the lines with ease. During corrective price action, it scurries between fan lines neurotically, like a squirrel checking and rechecking a multitude of secret buried nuts.

Bitstamp Bitcoin price chart 4h 29Dec2014

Readers wanting an explanation of the initial analysis of this chart and its indicators are referred to Saturday’s article.

BTC-China Daily Chart

BTC-China Bitcoin price chart daily 29Dec2014

Many analysts and traders prefer the BTC-China chart for its clarity and definitive movements. It will be regularly featured in this analysis series. An example fact from the BTC-China chart is that it breached the April 2013 top back in October of this year, thereby annulling the significance of this price level as rock-solid support. Despite the breach, BTC-China has not tumbled to new lows.

In the daily chart, above, two Fib fans have been drawn from the 2011 and 2013 bottoms. The proximity of current price action to the lowest .618 fan line extending from the 2011 bottom is significant. The next chart shows current price action in greater detail.

Before zooming in, also note the 20-period (green) and 200-period (red) moving averages. It is worth taking some time to study the relationship between price and these moving averages (MAs) during uptrends and downtrends. The past year’s corrective wave is the second occurrence, ever, of the Bitcoin price having consistently traded below the 200MA. Also, the 20MA strongly supports advance for its duration. Click on the chart for a larger image.

BTC-China 4-Hour Chart

BTC-China Bitcoin price chart 4h 29Dec2014

The same chart with the same annotations zoomed to the 4-hour timeframe. The top-most fan line is from 2011 and the lower three emanate from the 2013 bottom. The proximity of price to the lower supporting fan line may be significant, yet the role of the 2011 lower .618 fan line (see the daily chart) is certainly more dominant. We can reasonably expect price to eventually breach the 2013 fan line in order to test the 2011 support. This can be achieved via decline to support or via sideways consolidation until price action and rising support intersect.

The behaviour of price in relation to the moving averages is worth noting. Notice what happens when the faster 20MA crosses over the 200MA. There are also two “fake-outs” pertaining to this phenomenon on the chart.

Summary

Holiday trade has the Bitcoin price chart in a waiting state. It isn’t a case of “nothing’s happening” – something is cooking up in the chart – we just have to wait for price action and our indicators to give us some confirmatory signs of direction and potential extent.

As can be seen in the 4-hour Bitstamp and BTC-China charts, price is trading below the 200MA (red) which, technically, means we’re still in a downtrend. We await Bitcoin price’s next move.

The Bitfinex trading volume widget shows an apparent predominance of buyers, yet buyers and sellers have been pulling price in different directions around the clock as evidenced by the past 24 hours’ sideways price action:

BFX buysell vol 29dec2014

What do readers think? Please comment below.

[divider]CCN[/divider]

CCN hosts an interactive Bitcoin price chart and market metrics.

Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN.

Disclaimer

The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Images from Shutterstock.

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Posted by Venzen Khaosan

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect.

He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.

24 Comments

  1. 2014 was just one massive down flag. Can’t wait until we break this funk, next rally $3,000 BTC!

  2. nice

  3. Hm, so while we were waiting for wall st it was already lurking in the shadows?

  4. Looks like the cloudmining scam news are already here :)
    I have missed that article, thanks Ill dive right into it.
    Would love a fresh look at it in a new one too. Just one last wrinkle to add that I didnt mention in my previous post – the legal part of it, confusing to many, myself included, will be a huge factor as well.
    Cheers and happy new year!

  5. It is interesting to note that the biggest banks and investment firms have their paws in this market. Not officially, but they are well active in the market, and have been for at least 2 years. I was offered this information from several sources and it initially seemed implausible. Yet, why wouldn’t the largest players be interested? No regulation, no central bank competition and low liquidity – a speculator’s dream!

  6. @Scott Fargo:disqus , Thanks! Check your email.

  7. @kiwioz:disqus – good to hear from you. FF should revise their outdated policies or else risk losing great analysts like you.
    $200 seems less far-out now than when you called it 6 months ago. You illustrated the magnetic trendline down there and It wouldn’t surprise me if $200 prints.
    I’ll contact you via g+ and we can always converse here.

  8. I think youre getting Star Wars Galaxies and BTC confused. If you arent making up the missing bitcoins story why on earth would you have no desire to find your hard drive at the top of the last leg up?

    My best guess is that you were “aware” of bitcoin in 2011 but instead chose to play Star Wars Galaxies. Having realised your mistake you now hate bitcoin and have fabricated a story of woe in which you pretend you had no desire to recover $1,950,000 worth of assets.

    Get help my friend.

  9. @venzen, I understand both you and jim are focused more on traders than hodlers/investors as your market. However, perhaps a look at fundamentals and what are the current driving forces behind price would be an interesting read. Other news sites suggest taxes as a selling factor, something I really dont agree with. I see no1 talking about dumpage from the gox fiasco and probably another 100k coins coming on market from the “cowboys”. Which even if not significant as an amount will surely produce many news articles again. Also there is no clear schedule nor reasoning behind those sellofs, is there?
    Then there is mining, difiiculty drops, unprofitable offers all around and inevitable wave of cloudminung scams. Finally the selling pressure from all the merchants converting. Recently I attended a conference where someone from Bitpay was asked about that and he said they are aware of the problem and would not want to kill the market that feeds them. He said they are careful about releasing coin both from merchants and miner clients alike. However there is no clarity in their position and method.
    Just a few topics I’d like to see discussed around here. Cheers and welcome back.

  10. I am really sorry for your loss, if its real. In the new age keeping your digital you safe will be your responsibility. Internet is not going down, it cant be downed. Even in a zombie appocalypse you could come out of the woods, connect to some railroads and use them as an antenna to transmit a transaction.
    Not to mention the coming mesh networks revolution, microsatelites, drones and balloons providing wifi.

    You are obviously a non technical person, so I really doubt you mining 1000coins. Also you dont understand basic concepts in economy. So you can keep your incompetent opinion to yourself.

  11. doggiepuke 30/12/2014 at 11:43

    It sounds like you’ve been rehearsing this in your own head for a very long time. I know it can be very comforting to console yourself after such a large loss. My condolences.

  12. Stock in Google was a great buy, so was Amazon, Apple and many other investments.. and was cheap at one time, just like the time i invested in playing with bitcoins.. You know what else was a good investment? Sears back in the 30s, but I dare you to see what a useless stock they are now, just like sears, bitcoins will be a worthless investment. No different than other virtual investments. I played a game called SWG, Star Wars Galaxies, I earned trillions of credits. was able to sell them for $2 per $2million credits, when they shut the servers off I could do nothing to stop them from taking all my credits. Just like if I lost the internet I loose all my bitcoins. In a war, the first thing that goes is communication, i.e. the internet.. no internet, no currency… do people not think about this?without a government backing up a currency its useless. and when bitcoin peaked I think around $1200 or $1500 that hard drive was worth as much as $1,950,000 I still had no desire to look for it. Bit coin had a Mania phase, its over, the idea is gone, mining coins is almost not worth it unless you have a club that all mines and even then its not worth the return on the finite amount of coins.

  13. Hi venzen. Can’t post on FF anymore apart from commercial section. Will post a chart there if you want me to…Also on google+
    I still see -200.

  14. Hi venzen. Can’t post on FF anymore apart from commercial section. Will post a chart there if you want me to…
    I still see -200.

  15. mark boyle 30/12/2014 at 07:29

    it’s crazy how more bitcoins are being purchased than being sold(do I really have to explain how it should be a 1:1 ratio). It really throw credibility of the article out the window.

  16. I would be ransacking that landfill for that $400,000 if I were you lol.

  17. Yurushite Wasureru 30/12/2014 at 00:04

    I think any holder wished for this to happen. Only few actually see that the recent market is great for day trading, a lot of the pure technical analysis held up over the past month, contrary to the times when there is a lot of emotion involved.

    Another few interesting observation: the shutdown of black markets, meant a positive resonance from the price, contrary to the time when Silk Road 1.0 was taken down, also news of big companies adopting Bitcoin, did not send everybody into a buy frenzy, most probably because traders know, that they would buy over demand.

    It is as if the larger part of traders has learnt a lot compared to last year (as you commented earlier on, crypto trading is quite different from others), which I think would be the first indication for a maturing market.

  18. Welcome back. Nice write up. Fingers crossed we can finally start getting some stable long term growth soon.

  19. how do you draw your fan lines? I assume these are the ‘fib speed resistance fan’ tool on trading view? I thought you simply laid them down by placing 2 points… one on the trough and one on the peak (or vice versa) within the time period you’re looking at…this would make the ‘1’ fan line go through both the trough and the peak but yours don’t seam to do that…

  20. I mined 1300+ coins in 2011 -(before it was a thing) hard drive was tossed out in a PC that died.. I respect this “currency ” as much as any fake item… this currency is only as good as the PC its on, server it’s backup it’s stored on and if there is no internet, its useless and takes FOREVER sync..

  21. Hi @Yurushite Wasureru:disqus

    Yes, indeed. Looking at the past few years there had been a few rallies during this time and I was hoping for the same from mid-Dec till early Jan, but eh-eh: no show.

    I think you’ll agree that there is a lot of expectation in the market that Bitcoin should rally – that a rally is overdue – maybe the New Year is the tipping point. However, we can easily discard our expectations of the market and just look out for the signs of what it is busy doing. Then trade that and the $1000 rally can show up when it chooses to, one day. I mean to say: We don’t need a massive rally to trade Bitcoin profitably.

  22. Hi @June:disqus , that is the critical question. I think there is not just one driver but many things acting in concert. One of them – which other markets taught me to dismiss – is repeating price patterns. I don’t mean fractals, but the same wave structure over and over again – with slight variation. I’ll illustrate it over the weekend.

    Thanks for the link to the fan chart you posted yesterday. It prompted me to post a version I’ve had in my charts collection for some time and had updated on Saturday with the hope of using it for long-term analysis this first weekend of the new year. I posted it today because we are close to that support line.

    We may or may not go below $300. Let’s see. What is important to us traders is that the movement up or down be trade-able. I have found this decline since November much easier to trade than the decline from June because it was more predictable. That helps :)

  23. Thank you for an analysis.

    Really confusing market. I desire to know what actually drives the price.

    I have not thought the price below 300 albeit possible just for a few hours…. but it seems quite possible.

  24. Yurushite Wasureru 29/12/2014 at 18:04

    Interesting movement at the moment, I wonder what will happen after the psychological effect of New Years has taken effect.

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