Bitcoin price slammed down to support yesterday and again tested the $220 and 1450 CNY level overnight (UTC). There is never any justification for calling a bottom without confirmation in the chart, yet, there are technical indications that suggest advance.
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Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 07h27 UTC
Bitstamp 4-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
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An overnight (UTC) decline failed to make a new low and the chart is primed to push higher.
Price had plunged below its 4-hour 200MA (red) to the support floor at $220 (Bitstamp). The most recent wave down failed to push lower and strong buying is evident on the upward rebound.
We now start looking for confirmations of advance – all the while expecting price to potentially only be in a correction. As the confirmations are affirmed through timeframes, we will build a position – a strategy not frequently used here at xbt.social, but that the present opportunity calls for.
Our first expectation is that price moves toward the 4-hour 20MA (green), currently near $240. Given the bullish bias of the chart, this is our first moderate target, although more lilely targets (and reaction levels) will be posted in xbt.social analysis updates during the course of today.
Bullish bias is evident from MACD (bottom) that has plunged below its lower Bollinger band and is now turning up and crossing the signal line from heavily oversold conditions. The xbt.social stochastics are had flashed compound divergence, while RSI (second from top) made a new low in five waves – each not preceded by reverse divergence. The moderating implication from the latter (RSI) is that there may possibly be one more corrective pattern in store, since RSI does not show divergence on the very last wave low. We keep that in mind as we watch for confirmations according to our method.
Notice the depth chart below and the change in market positioning – with the support floor and upside resistance being defined by order placement – thereby showing us the range of trade going into the weekend.
A xbt.social Trade Recommendation plan will be issued in the coming hours.
Analysis Update
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
Gradual progress today but we see a wave pattern in the chart that is pushing higher.
For now it is assumed to be corrective, meaning it may return to one of the support levels below price, at some time – or worst case scenario – continue decline.
An initial sign that price may continue pushing higher will be an upward breach of the red 200-period moving average and for trade to establish price action in the area marked with a circle.
This will not serve as a confirmation of an advancing wave. Our initial confirmation of advance will come only when price crosses above the 200MA in the 1hr chart, currently near $255 (Bitstamp).
In the meantime we expect price to range and perhaps revisit the support levels near $230 and $220.
The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary. – Alexander Elder
Summary
Any advance from current levels may only be correct for all we know. Although unlikely, there is nothing that stop this price chart from finding a new low. Opportunistic long positioning from current levels should only be made with small a position size that can be built upon confirmations of advance – or sacrificed if the support floor does not hold.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin price chart.
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Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN.LA. A Global Economic Outlook report is published every Monday.
Disclaimer
The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.
