Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitstamp 4-Hour Chart
Bitstamp made a slight ascent to the 4-hour 20MA before falling away – again in a slight manner.
BTC-China 4-Hour Chart
Like Bitstamp log-scale, like BTC-China arithmetic-scale. Nothing to see here, folks, let’s move on…
BTC-China 4-Hour Chart – Long-Term Log-Scale
The 20MA and 50MA are annotated to emphasize price wave articulation in this 4-hour log-scale chart. Notice the recurring wave pattern of decline since early 2014.
The extremes of range that the Bitcoin price travels have led most people to view the chart in log-scale. According to this scale view, the decline seems to be slanting downwards with no end in sight. However, switch to a long-term arithmetic scale view and new visual clues emerge.
BTC-China 4-Hour Chart – Long-Term Arithmetic-Scale
The wine-red shaded area annotates the 200MA and the 20MA traces price in green.
In this arithmetic scale view, it becomes evident that the range of price action has progressively decreased in range over the course of the decline. Also, the envelope of decline is narrowing from left to right with a trajectory that is evidently flattening out. The mean angle of decline of the four stages of decline to date is successively shallower. Compare, for example, the initial declining wave from the Nov 2013 top with the declining wave following the Jan 2014 lower high.
If this dynamic continues then we could expect price action to tend to horizontal before a similar gradual advance unfolds during 2015. A horizontal red price line shows that price is currently in the vicinity of the low of the initial wave down from Nov 2013’s all-time high.
Bitcoin price is trading in a narrow range on the last day of 2014 with no confirmation of any tradeable moves.
Traders over at Bitfinex have been selling for the past hour (10h00-11h00 UTC) but nearer $300 the buyers should take their turn. Rinse, repeat.
Bitcoin holders, you have endured twelve months of grueling action: up, down, sideways, down. Then: up, down, sideways, up!, and other nasty surprizes… take a well-deserved rest to recuperate, I say.
What do readers think on the last day of this incredible year for Bitcoin? Please comment below.
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.